Western Union Em Boa Vista Roraima Drivers On Fire

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Western Union Em Boa Vista Roraima Drivers On Fire

Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 20152016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima.

To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on longterm data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period.

Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 20152016 and the 20162017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability.

Approximately 59 (132,900 km 2 ) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies 1 standard deviation (SD) in January and 48 (106,800 km 2 ) in March.

About 38 (86,200 km 2 ) of the study area experienced fire anomalies 1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016.

The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance.

Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (19971998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events.

Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climateinduced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests.